Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 64.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 34% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.2
- Upside to median
- -3.8%
- Last close
- $97.58
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.1%
- P75
- +16.8%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -6.1%
- P10
- -17.5%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield 1.7% plus buyback yield of about 1.0% plus forward EPS growth of about 5.0% less about 0.6 pp partial valuation convergence; USD/JPY effect assumed neutral; assumed 17% annual volatility with modest left skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.1%
- P75
- +12.8%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- -0.5%
- P10
- -7.0%
Same building blocks annualized over three years with continued buybacks; volatility scaled by the square root of three with modest left skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Unhedged currency exposure adds uncertainty.