Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 51.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–190 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–190 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 99.7
- Upside to median
- -0.3%
- Last close
- $89.23
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.6%
- P75
- +17.3%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -5.6%
- P10
- -17.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield 2.8% plus net buybacks of about 0.7% plus forward EPS growth of about 3.5% with no valuation convergence (median fair value near market); assumed 17% annual volatility with modest left skew; currency effects assumed neutral.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.3%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -0.3%
- P10
- -6.8%
Same building blocks annualized over three years; volatility scaled by the square root of three with modest left skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.