US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 83.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 12% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 89.3
- Upside to median
- -10.7%
- Last close
- $760.88
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.5%
- P75
- +15.7%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -5.9%
- P10
- -16.6%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield 1.1% plus net buybacks of about 0.5% plus forward EPS growth of about 6.0% (well below the roughly 16% implied by CY2027 consensus, reflecting historical estimate optimism and record margins) less about 1.6 pp partial valuation convergence; assumed 16% annual volatility with left skew (left 17.6%, right 14.4%).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.5%
- P75
- +11.4%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- -1.1%
- P10
- -7.2%
Dividend and buyback yield of 1.6% plus EPS growth of about 5.5% with gradual margin normalization, less about 1.3 pp per year as about 35% of the fair-value gap closes over three years; volatility scaled by the square root of three with left skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- +1.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a thin modeled spread relative to equity-level uncertainty, not a guaranteed excess return.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $524.49 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $287.91 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $709.18 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $215.01 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $541.50 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -2.0Expensive | 89.3 | $760.88 | +6.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $57.03 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $169.93 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $167.75 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $112.85 | — |