China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 50.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 50% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.9
- Upside to median
- -0.1%
- Last close
- $53.32
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +35.8%
- P75
- +22.2%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -11.5%
- P10
- -28.2%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield 2.3% plus haircut forward EPS growth of about 5% with no valuation convergence (median fair value near market) less about 0.3 pp risk drag; assumed 25% annual volatility with modest left skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +23.6%
- P75
- +15.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.7%
- P10
- -13.3%
Same building blocks annualized over three years; volatility scaled by the square root of three with modest left skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Modeled excess
- +2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread with very wide uncertainty, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $25.58 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $4.25 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $33.45 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.49 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $46.16 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $22.72 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $34.84 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $24.73 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | 0.0Fair | 99.9 | $53.32 | +7.0% |