Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 37.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 66% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.9
- Upside to median
- +0.9%
- Last close
- $71.17
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.1%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +1.7%
- P10
- -1.6%
84% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting YTM 5.22% less about 0.1 pp expected credit losses plus about 0.3 pp partial convergence toward median fair value; return dispersion from duration 5.7 years times an assumed 0.95 pp annual yield volatility (sigma about 5.5 pp), treated as symmetric.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.4%
- P75
- +7.4%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +3.2%
- P10
- +1.2%
Starting-yield anchor with yield-change dispersion scaled by the square root of three years; roll-down and reinvestment assumed near neutral.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- +1.0%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. A 1-year Treasury offers a certain 4.37% with far lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 100.9 | $71.17 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $78.53 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.93 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $104.30 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.34 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.82 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.93 | — |