Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 74.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.5
- Upside to median
- -6.5%
- Last close
- $59.61
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.6%
- P75
- +19.6%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -7.3%
- P10
- -20.7%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield 2.0% plus haircut forward EPS growth of about 6.5% less about 1.0 pp partial valuation convergence; assumed 20% annual volatility with modest left skew; currency effects assumed neutral.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.3%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -1.6%
- P10
- -9.3%
Same building blocks annualized over three years with slower growth after the semiconductor upcycle; volatility scaled by the square root of three with modest left skew.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.37%
- Expected excess
- +3.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread driven by earnings growth assumptions, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $97.16 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $107.21 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $176.22 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $37.72 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $68.49 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $48.43 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.5Expensive | 93.5 | $59.61 | +7.5% |