Valuation Lens — September 11, 2026

Today's market price sits above the centre of the modeled fair-value distribution in ten of eleven asset classes; only US investment-grade bonds price below modeled economic value, and the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield is a genuinely competitive alternative to most risk assets.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

September 11, 2026Data cutoff Sep 11, 2026, 6:30 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.35%1y Treasury

A 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.60% ten-year real yield at the top of their ten-year ranges set an unusually demanding hurdle for every long-duration risk asset.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.6%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.4
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.197.2–104.2
Upside to median
+1.1%
1y modeled
+5.6%-3.5% to 13.5%
vs Treasury
+1.3%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
96.578.9–117.6
Upside to median
-3.5%
1y modeled
+4.0%-48.0% to 80.0%
vs Treasury
-0.4%
Real EstateVNQ
-0.5
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.788.9–105.2
Upside to median
-2.3%
1y modeled
+6.0%-16.0% to 23.5%
vs Treasury
+1.7%
MetalsGLD
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.385.4–104.0
Upside to median
-3.7%
1y modeled
+2.0%-21.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-2.4%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
96.492.7–103.5
Upside to median
-3.6%
1y modeled
+8.0%-13.0% to 25.5%
vs Treasury
+3.7%
EnergyXLE
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
90.081.1–103.6
Upside to median
-10.0%
1y modeled
0.0%-26.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
-4.4%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.690.4–102.0
Upside to median
-4.4%
1y modeled
+7.5%-14.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+3.2%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.589.4–100.9
Upside to median
-6.5%
1y modeled
+6.5%-25.0% to 34.0%
vs Treasury
+2.2%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
92.187.0–99.1
Upside to median
-7.9%
1y modeled
+6.5%-16.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+2.2%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.8
Expensive
Median fair value
96.188.8–98.7
Upside to median
-3.9%
1y modeled
+7.5%-19.0% to 30.0%
vs Treasury
+3.2%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.3
Exceptionally expensive
Median fair value
91.784.9–94.9
Upside to median
-8.3%
1y modeled
+5.0%-13.0% to 19.5%
vs Treasury
+0.7%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-09-11, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.4 Somewhat cheap	101.1 97.2–104.2	+1.1%	+5.6% -3.5% to 13.5%	+1.3%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.2 Fair	96.5 78.9–117.6	-3.5%	+4.0% -48.0% to 80.0%	-0.4%
Real Estate VNQ	-0.5 Somewhat expensive	97.7 88.9–105.2	-2.3%	+6.0% -16.0% to 23.5%	+1.7%
Metals GLD	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	96.3 85.4–104.0	-3.7%	+2.0% -21.0% to 24.0%	-2.4%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	96.4 92.7–103.5	-3.6%	+8.0% -13.0% to 25.5%	+3.7%
Energy XLE	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	90.0 81.1–103.6	-10.0%	0.0% -26.0% to 24.0%	-4.4%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	95.6 90.4–102.0	-4.4%	+7.5% -14.0% to 26.0%	+3.2%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	93.5 89.4–100.9	-6.5%	+6.5% -25.0% to 34.0%	+2.2%
US Equities SPY	-1.8 Expensive	92.1 87.0–99.1	-7.9%	+6.5% -16.0% to 25.0%	+2.2%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.8 Expensive	96.1 88.8–98.7	-3.9%	+7.5% -19.0% to 30.0%	+3.2%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.3 Exceptionally expensive	91.7 84.9–94.9	-8.3%	+5.0% -13.0% to 19.5%	+0.7%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.4Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 43.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-0.5Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 54%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 64.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 59%Historical base rate: 79%

Energy

XLE · US Energy Sector

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 42%Historical base rate: 60%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 69%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 50%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 85%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.8Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 79.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 67%

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.3Exceptionally expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 89.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 12% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources22

1
Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
U.S. Department of the Treasury
2
Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1)
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
3
National Income and Product Accounts — GDP and Corporate Profits
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
4
Consumer Price Index
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
5
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: August 7, 2026
FactSet Research Systems
6
FactSet Earnings Insight
FactSet Research Systems
7
2026 Mid-Year Update: REITs Rebound, Poised for Future Gains and Growth
Nareit
8
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Central Banks
World Gold Council
9
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026 — Outlook
World Gold Council
10
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Energy Information Administration
11
EIA expects record electricity generation in 2026 and 2027 (STEO press release, 09/09/2026)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
12
Emerging Markets Equity Valuations
Siblis Research
13
Europe P/E (Price-Earnings) and EPS
Siblis Research
14
Global Markets Call: Still A Worldwide Bull Market
Yardeni Research
15
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) — Fund Profile
The Vanguard Group
16
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) — Fund Profile
BlackRock
17
Onchain Valuation: What Bitcoin's Realized Price Says About 2026
Amberdata
18
Compelling Valuations in Japan
Hennessy Funds
19
China Equity Strategy: Lowering Targets Amid Macroeconomic and Liquidity Headwinds
Macrostream
20
Hong Kong 2026 Investment Outlook: Embracing Reflation and Technology Growth
FSMOne Singapore
21
S&P 500 sector performance: Energy leads with +42% YTD gain in 2026
Investing.com
22
National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: vl_2026-09-11_001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.