China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 70.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.5
- Upside to median
- -6.5%
- Last close
- $52.96
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 4.2% combined dividend and buyback yield, plus roughly 5% earnings growth anchored on the 6% top-down estimate rather than the 14% consensus, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Dispersion is the second widest of any equity asset class here, reflecting genuine policy and governance uncertainty. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +14.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -8.0%
Shareholder yield plus nominal earnings growth accelerating modestly as domestic reflation takes hold, with 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years. No assumption of a return to the 15.5x ten-year peak multiple.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- +2.2%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 6.5% one-year median leaves roughly 2.15 percentage points of expected edge over the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield, with a modeled tenth-to-ninetieth-percentile range of minus 25% to plus 34% around it.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.5 | $52.96 | +6.5% |
| FXI China Large-Cap | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $34.49 | +7.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $25.84 | +8.0% |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | +0.2Fair | 102.0 | $22.52 | +9.0% |
| ASHR China A-Shares | -1.4Expensive | 92.0 | $33.64 | +5.5% |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | -1.6Expensive | 91.0 | $24.60 | +5.5% |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | -2.0Expensive | 89.0 | $46.33 | +4.5% |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | -2.1Expensive | 88.0 | $4.33 | +4.0% |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $16.27 | +6.5% |