Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.6
- Upside to median
- -4.4%
- Last close
- $98.56
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -14.0%
69% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.3% combined dividend and buyback yield, plus roughly 6.5% sustainable earnings growth from nominal reflation and buyback accretion after a consensus-optimism haircut, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, plus a modest positive contribution from unhedged yen exposure given a broad dollar 2.2% lower year over year. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +2.5%
- P10
- -3.0%
Shareholder yield rising with the buyback cycle plus sustainable nominal earnings growth, with 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years and partial credit for the governance-driven improvement in return on equity.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- +3.2%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 7.5% one-year median gives roughly 3.15 percentage points of expected edge over the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield, of which a meaningful part is unhedged currency exposure rather than Japanese corporate earnings.
5 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EWJ Japan Broad Market | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | $98.56 | +7.5% |
| EWJV Japan Value Equity | +0.3Fair | 103.0 | $50.12 | +9.0% |
| JPXN Japan JPX-Nikkei 400 | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $104.81 | +7.5% |
| SCJ Japan Small-Cap Equity | -0.1Fair | 101.0 | $110.30 | +8.5% |
| DXJ Japan Hedged Equity | -1.9Expensive | 89.0 | $177.22 | +6.5% |