Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 19% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.1
- Upside to median
- -3.9%
- Last close
- $60.35
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.0%
- P75
- +19.0%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -19.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 3.4% combined dividend and buyback yield, plus roughly 6.5% earnings growth as the semiconductor cycle moderates from an extreme base, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, plus a modest positive contribution from unhedged currency exposure given a broad dollar 2.2% lower year over year. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -5.0%
Shareholder yield plus mid-cycle rather than peak earnings growth, with 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years and a modest currency contribution. No assumption that the current semiconductor upcycle persists through the horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- +3.2%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 7.5% one-year median gives roughly 3.15 percentage points of expected edge over the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield, one of the wider edges here, but with a modeled tenth-to-ninetieth-percentile range of minus 19% to plus 30%.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.8Expensive | 96.1 | $60.35 | +7.5% |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $38.19 | +11.0% |
| EZA South Africa Index | +0.5Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $70.10 | +10.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | -0.3Fair | 99.0 | $100.59 | +8.0% |
| INDA India Index | -1.4Expensive | 92.0 | $48.57 | +7.0% |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 85.0 | $110.91 | +6.5% |
| EWY South Korea Index | -2.6Exceptionally expensive | 82.0 | $188.72 | +6.0% |