Metals
Today’s price sits at the 64.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 39% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.3
- Upside to median
- -3.7%
- Last close
- $398.77
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -21.0%
55% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Composite carry of roughly 0.2% across the sleeve, since bullion pays nothing net of custody fees while miners pay about 1.5%, plus a structural official-sector demand contribution, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Dispersion is taken from the real-yield and supply-balance scenario families. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -9.0%
Structural official-sector demand and industrial-metal supply deficits net of a persistent real-yield headwind, with 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years. No assumption that the post-2022 decoupling from real yields either persists indefinitely or fully reverses.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- -2.4%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 2.0% one-year median sits roughly 2.35 percentage points below the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield; with a 2.60% ten-year real yield available contractually, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding store of value is at a multi-decade high.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.3 | $398.77 | +2.0% |
| SLV Silver | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $58.12 | +3.5% |
| PPLT Platinum | -1.3Expensive | 92.0 | $16.26 | +0.5% |
| GDX Gold Miners | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $97.10 | +7.0% |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | 0.0Fair | 101.0 | $63.35 | +5.5% |
| CPER Copper | +0.3Fair | 104.0 | $39.18 | +6.0% |
| DBB Base Metals | +0.1Fair | 102.0 | $25.41 | +5.0% |