Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 53.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 42% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 50–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–150 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 96.5
- Upside to median
- -3.5%
- Last close
- $43.77
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +80.0%
- P75
- +38.0%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -24.0%
- P10
- -48.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Composite carry of roughly 0.8% from the staked sleeve, plus an adoption and network-growth contribution, plus 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, with an intentionally very wide return distribution reflecting realized volatility several times that of equities. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +22.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -8.0%
- P10
- -25.0%
Adoption and network-fee growth plus staking carry, with 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years. The distribution is deliberately wide and the model does not assume any repeat of a prior four-year price cycle.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- -0.4%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 4.0% one-year median sits marginally below the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield while carrying a modeled tenth-to-ninetieth-percentile range of roughly minus 48% to plus 80%; the Treasury offers a comparable central return with incomparably less uncertainty.