Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 59.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 36% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 97.7
- Upside to median
- -2.3%
- Last close
- $94.80
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +23.5%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -3.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 4.1% distribution yield plus sustainable AFFO growth of roughly 3.5% after a modest haircut to the current 12.4% FFO growth rate, plus 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, with dispersion taken from the cap-rate-spread scenario family. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.0%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -3.0%
Distribution yield plus 4% AFFO growth supported by 3.8% same-store NOI growth, plus 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years. No assumption of a return to pre-2022 cap rates.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- +1.7%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 6.0% one-year median gives roughly 1.65 percentage points of expected edge over the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield, but the modeled tenth-to-ninetieth-percentile range spans minus 16% to plus 23.5% for that edge.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.7 | $94.80 | +6.0% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -0.7Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $43.42 | +5.8% |
| REET Global Real Estate | -0.1Fair | 100.5 | $26.98 | +6.6% |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | -0.3Fair | 99.0 | $92.08 | +6.2% |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $30.31 | +4.5% |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | +0.3Fair | 104.0 | $20.79 | +8.5% |