Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 27% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.4
- Upside to median
- -3.6%
- Last close
- $90.02
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.5%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -2.0%
- P10
- -13.0%
70% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 4.5% combined distribution and buyback yield, the highest shareholder yield of any equity asset class here, plus roughly 6% sustainable earnings growth after a consensus-optimism haircut, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.5%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- +3.0%
- P10
- -2.0%
Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth, with 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years and partial rather than full normalization of the forward multiple toward its historical average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- +3.7%
- Basis
- proxy
The largest modeled one-year edge over the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield in this report, at roughly 3.65 percentage points, driven by the highest shareholder yield of any equity asset class rather than by a cheap starting valuation.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK Europe Broad Market | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 96.4 | $90.02 | +8.0% |
| EZU Eurozone Equity Index | -1.4Expensive | 95.0 | $69.61 | +7.5% |
| EWG Germany Index | -2.0Expensive | 92.0 | $42.87 | +6.5% |
| EWQ France Index | -1.0Somewhat expensive | 96.5 | $44.93 | +8.5% |
| EWU United Kingdom Index | +0.3Fair | 103.0 | $47.94 | +9.5% |
| EWL Switzerland Index | -1.5Expensive | 94.0 | $60.30 | +7.0% |