Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 89.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 12% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.7
- Upside to median
- -8.3%
- Last close
- $29.27
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +19.5%
- P75
- +12.5%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -2.5%
- P10
- -13.0%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 4.4% combined grossed-up distribution and buyback yield, plus roughly 4% earnings growth appropriate to a banking- and resource-dominated index, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap, which is the largest negative convergence drag of any equity asset class here. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.5%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +1.0%
- P10
- -3.5%
Shareholder yield plus modest earnings growth, less 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years. Partial rather than full reversion of the forward multiple toward the long-run Australian average.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 5.0% one-year median leaves only about 0.65 percentage points over the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield while carrying full equity risk; on this evidence the Treasury offers a competitive expected return with materially lower uncertainty.