Energy
Today’s price sits at the 68.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $65.14
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +24.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- 0.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -26.0%
50% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 5.4% combined dividend and buyback yield, less a negative fundamental contribution of roughly 4% as the EIA's forecast oil-price decline works through sector earnings, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap. Dispersion is taken from the oil-price scenario family. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +12.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -4.5%
- P10
- -11.0%
Shareholder yield less the earnings decline implied by the EIA path toward $67 Brent in the second half of 2027, partly offset by capital discipline and a higher terminal free-cash-flow conversion, with 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- -4.4%
- Basis
- proxy
The weakest modeled edge in this report: a 0.0% one-year median sits roughly 4.35 percentage points below the one-year Treasury par yield, and the modeled tenth-to-ninetieth-percentile range spans minus 26% to plus 24%.