US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 79.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 20% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.1
- Upside to median
- -7.9%
- Last close
- $764.29
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.0%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.0%
- P10
- -16.0%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
A 2.6% shareholder yield from dividends and net buybacks, plus roughly 7% earnings growth after haircutting the 30% calendar-2026 and 25.2% fourth-quarter consensus estimates for historical optimism bias and record margins, less 20% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap and a further allowance for margin-normalization risk. Scenario-implied beat probability is read off the modeled return distribution at the 4.35% one-year Treasury par-yield hurdle and is diagnostic only.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +16.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +1.5%
- P10
- -4.0%
Shareholder yield plus sustainable earnings growth of roughly 6.5%, less 45% convergence of the modeled fair-value gap spread across three years. Partial rather than full normalization of both the forward multiple and the record profits share of GDP.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.35%
- Expected excess
- +2.2%
- Basis
- proxy
A modeled 6.5% one-year median leaves roughly 2.15 percentage points of expected edge over the 4.35% one-year Treasury par yield, a thinner cushion than usual for equity risk and one that rests on earnings growth rather than on starting valuation.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.8Expensive | 92.1 | $764.29 | +6.5% |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $214.87 | +7.5% |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 104.0 | $165.36 | +9.0% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -0.2Fair | 99.0 | $57.25 | +8.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $525.79 | +7.0% |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $288.89 | +7.0% |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -2.4Exceptionally expensive | 88.0 | $714.88 | +6.0% |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -2.1Expensive | 90.0 | $172.37 | +5.5% |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -2.3Exceptionally expensive | 89.0 | $112.96 | +5.0% |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | -2.8Exceptionally expensive | 82.0 | $568.53 | +5.0% |