Valuation Lens — November 13, 2026

Core bonds and China screen modestly cheap, while Developed Pacific, gold and REITs look expensive; against a 4.65% one-year Treasury hurdle, most modeled equity return edges are slim.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

November 13, 2026Last market session Nov 13, 2026Data cutoff Nov 13, 2026, 6:45 PM EST

The hurdle to beat

4.65%1y Treasury

A 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield and a 2.91% 10-year real yield, near the top of their 20-year ranges, set a demanding hurdle for every risk asset.

10y Treasury: 5.2%
10y real: 2.9%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.9
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
101.399.1–103.4
Upside to median
+1.3%
1y modeled
+5.8%-1.2% to 12.8%
vs Treasury
+1.2%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.7
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
104.395.0–113.9
Upside to median
+4.3%
1y modeled
+7.0%-23.8% to 37.8%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.5
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
105.786.5–126.6
Upside to median
+5.7%
1y modeled
+6.0%-47.6% to 114.5%
vs Treasury
+1.4%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-0.1
Fair
Median fair value
99.690.6–108.8
Upside to median
-0.4%
1y modeled
+7.5%-16.9% to 31.9%
vs Treasury
+2.9%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
99.091.6–106.4
Upside to median
-1.0%
1y modeled
+7.0%-13.5% to 27.5%
vs Treasury
+2.4%
US EquitiesSPY
-0.9
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.687.8–103.0
Upside to median
-4.4%
1y modeled
+5.5%-15.0% to 26.0%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
EnergyUSO
-1.0
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
93.985.1–103.3
Upside to median
-6.1%
1y modeled
+2.0%-42.9% to 46.9%
vs Treasury
-2.7%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.487.2–101.4
Upside to median
-5.6%
1y modeled
+5.0%-15.5% to 25.5%
vs Treasury
+0.4%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
92.484.5–100.0
Upside to median
-7.6%
1y modeled
+5.0%-19.4% to 29.4%
vs Treasury
+0.4%
MetalsGLD
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
89.578.9–99.3
Upside to median
-10.5%
1y modeled
+2.0%-22.4% to 26.4%
vs Treasury
-2.7%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
90.483.2–97.4
Upside to median
-9.6%
1y modeled
+4.5%-17.3% to 26.3%
vs Treasury
-0.2%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-11-13, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.9 Somewhat cheap	101.3 99.1–103.4	+1.3%	+5.8% -1.2% to 12.8%	+1.2%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.7 Somewhat cheap	104.3 95.0–113.9	+4.3%	+7.0% -23.8% to 37.8%	+2.4%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.5 Somewhat cheap	105.7 86.5–126.6	+5.7%	+6.0% -47.6% to 114.5%	+1.4%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-0.1 Fair	99.6 90.6–108.8	-0.4%	+7.5% -16.9% to 31.9%	+2.9%
Europe Equities VGK	-0.2 Fair	99.0 91.6–106.4	-1.0%	+7.0% -13.5% to 27.5%	+2.4%
US Equities SPY	-0.9 Somewhat expensive	95.6 87.8–103.0	-4.4%	+5.5% -15.0% to 26.0%	+0.9%
Energy USO	-1.0 Somewhat expensive	93.9 85.1–103.3	-6.1%	+2.0% -42.9% to 46.9%	-2.7%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	94.4 87.2–101.4	-5.6%	+5.0% -15.5% to 25.5%	+0.4%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.5 Expensive	92.4 84.5–100.0	-7.6%	+5.0% -19.4% to 29.4%	+0.4%
Metals GLD	-1.6 Expensive	89.5 78.9–99.3	-10.5%	+2.0% -22.4% to 26.4%	-2.7%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-1.9 Expensive	90.4 83.2–97.4	-9.6%	+4.5% -17.3% to 26.3%	-0.2%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.9Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 58%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.7Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 38.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 49%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.5Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 42.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 51.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 49% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 68%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 56%Historical base rate: 80%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-0.9Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 65.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.0Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 47%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 69%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 74.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 54%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 45%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 50%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources13

1
Lowest Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio For the S&P 500 in More Than 3 Years
FactSet
2
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026
FactSet
3
EIA sees Brent near $100/bbl through yearend 2026 as Middle East supply constraints persist
Oil & Gas Journal (reporting the U.S. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook)
4
Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026 Outlook
World Gold Council
5
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) fund page
BlackRock iShares
6
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) fund page
BlackRock iShares
7
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA) fund page
BlackRock iShares
8
iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU) fund page
BlackRock iShares
9
iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) fund page
BlackRock iShares
10
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) fund page
BlackRock iShares
11
iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (IYR) fund page
BlackRock iShares
12
Bitcoin falls below its one-year median
Axel Adler Jr.
13
STOXX 600 seen rising modestly by year-end, poll shows
Kitco (Reuters)

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-11-13-001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.