Japan Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
EWJ · Japan Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 70.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 29% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.4
- Upside to median
- -5.6%
- Last close
- $91.76
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
63/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +25.5%
- P75
- +15.8%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -5.8%
- P10
- -15.5%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.2% ordinary) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth from buybacks and ROE gains, less partial multiple compression, with dispersion scaled to about 16% volatility including yen risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.0%
- P75
- +9.6%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -4.5%
Income plus earnings growth with partial normalization of the price-to-book premium.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +0.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments