Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 53.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 46% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 99.0
- Upside to median
- -1.0%
- Last close
- $89.04
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-11-13
62/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.5%
- P75
- +17.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -3.8%
- P10
- -13.5%
67% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.8-3.0%) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth with near-zero valuation convergence, with dispersion scaled to European equity and currency volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.5%
- P75
- +11.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -2.5%
Income plus earnings growth with partial normalization of 2026's elevated growth.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments