Energy
Today’s price sits at the 67.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.9
- Upside to median
- -6.1%
- Last close
- $145.58
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +46.9%
- P75
- +25.6%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -21.6%
- P10
- -42.9%
52% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Collateral yield on futures margin plus roll yield in a backwardated curve, less the expected decline in spot prices as supply recovers, with dispersion scaled to about 35% crude-oil volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.0%
- P75
- +10.5%
- Median
- +1.0%
- P25
- -8.5%
- P10
- -18.0%
Collateral and roll yield with mean reversion of crude toward marginal-cost-based levels.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury alternative offers a higher central return with far lower uncertainty.