US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 65.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 35% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 95.6
- Upside to median
- -4.4%
- Last close
- $754.37
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.0%
- P75
- +16.3%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -5.3%
- P10
- -15.0%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 1.2%) plus haircut forward earnings growth (about 8%) less partial multiple compression toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to about 16% annual volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +13.0%
- P75
- +9.2%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- +0.8%
- P10
- -3.5%
Three-year EPS growth of 6-13% a year, dividends, and partial multiple normalization toward the scenario distribution.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +0.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury alternative offers a similar central return with far less uncertainty.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 95.6 | $754.37 | +5.5% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $523.15 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $277.54 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $679.86 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $221.16 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $486.66 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $58.68 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $168.78 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $188.85 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $119.98 | — |