Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 82.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 90.4
- Upside to median
- -9.6%
- Last close
- $29.09
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.3%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +4.5%
- P25
- -7.0%
- P10
- -17.3%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 3.5-4%) plus low earnings growth, less partial convergence toward median fair value, with dispersion scaled to about 17% volatility including currency risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.4%
- P75
- +9.6%
- Median
- +4.8%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -4.8%
Income plus low earnings growth with partial multiple normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -0.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury alternative offers a similar central return with far lower uncertainty.