China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 38.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 62% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 104.3
- Upside to median
- +4.3%
- Last close
- $49.46
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +37.8%
- P75
- +23.2%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- -9.2%
- P10
- -23.8%
62% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 2.2%) plus mid-single-digit earnings growth plus partial convergence toward median fair value, with return dispersion scaled to the benchmark's roughly 21% three-year volatility plus policy-shock risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.0%
- P75
- +13.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- 0.0%
- P10
- -6.0%
Income plus earnings growth plus partial valuation convergence over three years, with widened dispersion for geopolitical and policy risk.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +2.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.7Somewhat cheap | 104.3 | $49.46 | +7.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.72 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.73 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.24 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.90 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $38.42 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.06 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.48 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $22.93 | — |