Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 35.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 65% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.3
- Upside to median
- +1.3%
- Last close
- $70.60
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.8%
- P75
- +9.5%
- Median
- +5.8%
- P25
- +2.1%
- P10
- -1.2%
85% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield-to-maturity carry (about 5.4%) plus partial convergence toward modeled fair yield, with yield-change scenarios at roughly 1pp annual yield volatility times 5.7 years of duration; credit-loss drag is small given the aggregate-index mix.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +8.5%
- P75
- +7.1%
- Median
- +5.6%
- P25
- +4.1%
- P10
- +2.6%
Starting yield anchor with yield-path scenarios; over a horizon near the portfolio duration, the annualized return converges toward the starting yield.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +1.2%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 101.3 | $70.60 | +5.8% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $76.94 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.07 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $102.81 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.17 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $104.61 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $79.38 | — |