Metals
Today’s price sits at the 76.7th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–170 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 89.5
- Upside to median
- -10.5%
- Last close
- $355.45
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.4%
- P75
- +14.8%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -10.8%
- P10
- -22.4%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; central-bank demand support partly offset by convergence toward modeled fair value and the high real-yield opportunity cost, with dispersion scaled to about 19% gold volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +14.5%
- P75
- +8.5%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -3.5%
- P10
- -9.5%
Real-price mean reversion offset by persistent official-sector demand and inflation pass-through.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- -2.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The Treasury alternative offers a higher central return with far lower uncertainty.