Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 42.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 58% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–210 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–170 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 105.7
- Upside to median
- +5.7%
- Last close
- $38.94
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +114.5%
- P75
- +53.6%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -26.9%
- P10
- -47.6%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Lognormal return scenarios (55% annual log-volatility) centred on modest convergence toward the median fair value; no income component.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +45.0%
- P75
- +25.0%
- Median
- +5.0%
- P25
- -14.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Lognormal three-year scenarios with adoption and dilution assumptions; very low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.65%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled one-year median return minus the 4.65% one-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The return range is extremely wide relative to the spread.