Valuation Lens — November 11, 2026

Core bonds price near fair value while U.S., European, Pacific, real-estate and commodity markets trade above modeled economic value against a 4.56% 1-year Treasury hurdle.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

November 11, 2026Last market session Nov 11, 2026Data cutoff Nov 11, 2026, 6:40 PM EST

The hurdle to beat

4.56%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.56% sets a demanding annual hurdle, with the 10-year real yield at 2.78%, above the 99th percentile of its 10-year range.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.8%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
100.498.2–102.8
Upside to median
+0.4%
1y modeled
+5.3%-1.7% to 12.3%
vs Treasury
+0.7%
CryptoBTC-USD
+0.2
Fair
Median fair value
101.372.3–107.5
Upside to median
+1.3%
1y modeled
+2.0%-45.0% to 65.0%
vs Treasury
-2.6%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
-0.4
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
98.087.8–103.6
Upside to median
-2.0%
1y modeled
+6.7%-25.3% to 38.7%
vs Treasury
+2.1%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
97.188.0–102.0
Upside to median
-2.9%
1y modeled
+6.8%-16.3% to 29.9%
vs Treasury
+2.2%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
-1.2
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.291.5–103.2
Upside to median
-4.8%
1y modeled
+7.5%-20.7% to 35.7%
vs Treasury
+2.9%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.3
Expensive
Median fair value
94.786.2–100.9
Upside to median
-5.3%
1y modeled
+6.5%-15.3% to 28.3%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
91.087.0–100.3
Upside to median
-9.0%
1y modeled
+6.5%-16.0% to 26.5%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
93.383.0–98.0
Upside to median
-6.7%
1y modeled
+6.5%-17.9% to 30.9%
vs Treasury
+1.9%
EnergyUSO
-1.7
Expensive
Median fair value
88.179.0–96.8
Upside to median
-11.9%
1y modeled
-2.0%-38.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
-6.6%
MetalsGLD
-1.9
Expensive
Median fair value
85.572.0–96.9
Upside to median
-14.5%
1y modeled
-1.0%-24.0% to 22.1%
vs Treasury
-5.6%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.2
Expensive
Median fair value
87.381.8–92.0
Upside to median
-12.7%
1y modeled
+5.3%-16.5% to 27.1%
vs Treasury
+0.7%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-11-11, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.2 Fair	100.4 98.2–102.8	+0.4%	+5.3% -1.7% to 12.3%	+0.7%
Crypto BTC-USD	+0.2 Fair	101.3 72.3–107.5	+1.3%	+2.0% -45.0% to 65.0%	-2.6%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	-0.4 Somewhat expensive	98.0 87.8–103.6	-2.0%	+6.7% -25.3% to 38.7%	+2.1%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	97.1 88.0–102.0	-2.9%	+6.8% -16.3% to 29.9%	+2.2%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	-1.2 Somewhat expensive	95.2 91.5–103.2	-4.8%	+7.5% -20.7% to 35.7%	+2.9%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.3 Expensive	94.7 86.2–100.9	-5.3%	+6.5% -15.3% to 28.3%	+1.9%
US Equities SPY	-1.5 Expensive	91.0 87.0–100.3	-9.0%	+6.5% -16.0% to 26.5%	+1.9%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.7 Expensive	93.3 83.0–98.0	-6.7%	+6.5% -17.9% to 30.9%	+1.9%
Energy USO	-1.7 Expensive	88.1 79.0–96.8	-11.9%	-2.0% -38.0% to 38.0%	-6.6%
Metals GLD	-1.9 Expensive	85.5 72.0–96.9	-14.5%	-1.0% -24.0% to 22.1%	-5.6%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.2 Expensive	87.3 81.8–92.0	-12.7%	+5.3% -16.5% to 27.1%	+0.7%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 47.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

+0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 0–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 48%

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

-0.4Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 57.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 49%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 69.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 69%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

-1.2Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 68%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.3Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 80%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 74.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 85%

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 54%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.7Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 78.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 43%Historical base rate: 62%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.9Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 20–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 38%Historical base rate: 71%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.2Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 87.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 13% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 52%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources13

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 6, 2026
FactSet
2
MSCI USA Index
MSCI
3
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
4
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
5
MSCI EM (Emerging Markets) Index
MSCI
6
MSCI Emerging Markets ex China Index
MSCI
7
MSCI China Index
MSCI
8
MSCI Pacific ex Japan Index
MSCI
9
Short-Term Energy Outlook (November 10, 2026 release)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
10
REITs Rebounded in October, Leading Broader Equities
Nareit
11
iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) portfolio characteristics
BlackRock iShares
12
The Week On-chain: Running on Empty
Glassnode
13
Daily Gold and Silver Market Analysis – 9 November 2026
ISA Bullion

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-11-11-261111001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.