US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 74.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 91.0
- Upside to median
- -9.0%
- Last close
- $759.81
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.5%
- P75
- +17.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -4.8%
- P10
- -16.0%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (about 2.4%) plus earnings growth of about 6% after haircutting consensus for record margins, less a valuation-convergence drag of about 1.9%, with about 17% annual volatility and modest negative skew.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.9%
- P75
- +12.9%
- Median
- +6.3%
- P25
- -0.3%
- P10
- -6.3%
Same building blocks over three years with about 45% of the fair-value gap closing.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The equity edge over Treasuries is thin for the risk taken.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $524.44 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | —Unavailable | — | $283.09 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $690.21 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | —Unavailable | — | $222.65 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | —Unavailable | — | $506.91 | — |
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.5Expensive | 91.0 | $759.81 | +6.5% |
| XLF US Financial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $58.63 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | —Unavailable | — | $170.97 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | —Unavailable | — | $188.95 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | —Unavailable | — | $120.99 | — |