Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 46.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 0–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 101.3
- Upside to median
- +1.3%
- Last close
- $42.24
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +65.0%
- P75
- +30.0%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -25.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
51% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Modeled from a near-fair starting valuation with no carry, net liquidity headwinds from stablecoin contraction and spot-fund outflows, and an annual volatility assumption of about 55%.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +35.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -14.0%
- P10
- -30.0%
Adoption-driven scenarios without cash-flow anchors; very wide dispersion and low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- -2.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasury offers a higher central expectation with far lower uncertainty.