Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 47.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.4
- Upside to median
- +0.4%
- Last close
- $71.05
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +12.3%
- P75
- +9.0%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +1.6%
- P10
- -1.7%
83% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity less expected credit losses and fees as carry, plus a small valuation-convergence term, with a return spread scaled to duration times typical 1-year yield volatility (about 5.5%).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.4%
- P75
- +7.5%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +3.1%
- P10
- +1.2%
Starting yield to maturity as the dominant anchor for a roughly duration-matched horizon, with annualized dispersion narrowing over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +0.7%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is small relative to the added duration risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.2Fair | 100.4 | $71.05 | +5.3% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $77.35 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $90.92 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | —Unavailable | — | $103.96 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $81.27 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $105.26 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | —Unavailable | — | $80.88 | — |