Energy
Today’s price sits at the 78.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 88.1
- Upside to median
- -11.9%
- Last close
- $141.47
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- -2.0%
- P25
- -22.0%
- P10
- -38.0%
48% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Expected spot decline toward the EIA 2027 path, partly offset by positive roll yield in a backwardated futures curve and collateral income near Treasury-bill rates, with about 35% annual volatility and right-skewed supply-shock risk.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +7.0%
- Median
- -3.0%
- P25
- -13.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
Spot normalization toward marginal-cost and mid-cycle real prices plus collateral income; roll yield fades as inventories rebuild.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- -6.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasury offers a higher central expectation with far lower uncertainty.