Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 70.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 30% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 95.2
- Upside to median
- -4.8%
- Last close
- $57.22
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +35.7%
- P75
- +22.3%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -7.3%
- P10
- -20.7%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (about 2.7%) plus partially delivered earnings growth, less multiple compression typical when earnings peak, with about 22% annual volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +23.1%
- P75
- +15.4%
- Median
- +6.8%
- P25
- -1.8%
- P10
- -9.5%
Same building blocks over three years with a mid-cycle earnings normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, with wide earnings-cycle risk.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | —Unavailable | — | $91.11 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | —Unavailable | — | $100.19 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | —Unavailable | — | $147.81 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | —Unavailable | — | $32.44 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | —Unavailable | — | $66.86 | — |
| INDA India Index | —Unavailable | — | $51.59 | — |
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 95.2 | $57.22 | +7.5% |