Metals
Today’s price sits at the 82.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–140 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 85.5
- Upside to median
- -14.5%
- Last close
- $369.36
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +22.1%
- P75
- +11.1%
- Median
- -1.0%
- P25
- -13.1%
- P10
- -24.0%
48% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No carry, a fund expense drag, and partial convergence toward modeled fair value offset by continuing official-sector demand, with about 18% annual volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +11.8%
- P75
- +5.5%
- Median
- -1.5%
- P25
- -8.5%
- P10
- -14.8%
Gradual normalization of the real-yield gap over three years; very uncertain given the post-2022 regime change in gold pricing.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- -5.6%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. Treasury offers a higher central expectation with far lower uncertainty.