China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 57.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 43% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–150 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–140 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 98.0
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- Last close
- $50.62
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.7%
- P75
- +23.6%
- Median
- +6.7%
- P25
- -10.2%
- P10
- -25.3%
61% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (about 3.1%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 4%) plus a small valuation-convergence drag, with about 25% annual volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +24.8%
- P75
- +16.0%
- Median
- +6.3%
- P25
- -3.4%
- P10
- -12.2%
Same building blocks over three years with partial valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +2.1%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, earned with much higher volatility.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $24.40 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.94 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.76 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.19 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $39.81 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $23.06 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $33.92 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.67 | — |
| MCHI China Broad Market | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $50.62 | +6.7% |