Europe Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VGK · Europe Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 72.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 28% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 94.7
- Upside to median
- -5.3%
- Last close
- $89.46
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-11
70/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +28.3%
- P75
- +18.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -5.0%
- P10
- -15.3%
65% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend and buyback yield (about 4.1%) plus earnings growth of about 3.5% held back by the energy-price shock, less a valuation-convergence drag of about 1.1%, with about 17% annual volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.9%
- P75
- +12.9%
- Median
- +6.3%
- P25
- -0.3%
- P10
- -6.3%
Same building blocks over three years with partial valuation normalization.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return.
Instruments