Real Estate
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
VNQ · US Real Estate
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 78.4th percentile of modeled fair value — 22% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 93.3
- Upside to median
- -6.7%
- Last close
- $97.02
- Confidence
- moderate-high
index, market = 100
2026-11-11
66/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.9%
- P75
- +19.3%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -6.3%
- P10
- -17.9%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 3.8%) plus AFFO growth of about 4%, less a valuation-convergence drag of about 1.3%, with about 19% annual volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +20.3%
- P75
- +13.6%
- Median
- +6.2%
- P25
- -1.2%
- P10
- -7.9%
Same building blocks over three years with partial normalization of the AFFO-yield spread to Treasuries.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return less the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return. REIT income yields sit below the 1-year Treasury.
Instruments
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| REET Global Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $27.21 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | —Unavailable | — | $16.71 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | —Unavailable | — | $95.09 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | —Unavailable | — | $28.67 | — |
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.7Expensive | 93.3 | $97.02 | +6.5% |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | —Unavailable | — | $44.59 | — |