Valuation Lens — November 10, 2026
With the 10-year Treasury near 5% and real yields near 20-year highs, high-quality bonds and emerging-market equities price slightly below modeled fair value, while crude oil, Australian equities, gold and US large caps price above it.
Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.
The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.56% sets the annual hurdle, while 10-year nominal and real yields of 4.98% and 2.78% sit near the top of their 20-year ranges and raise the discount rate applied to long-duration assets.
- 10y Treasury
- 5.0%
- 10y real
- 2.8%
Cheap to expensive
Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.
- Fixed IncomeBND+0.6Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 100.898.8–102.8
- Upside to median
- +0.8%
- 1y modeled
- +5.4%-1.0% to 11.8%
- vs Treasury
- +0.8%
- +0.6Somewhat cheap
- Median fair value
- 103.095.0–111.6
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- 1y modeled
- +8.0%-17.6% to 33.6%
- vs Treasury
- +3.4%
- +0.3Fair
- Median fair value
- 101.094.9–107.1
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.5%-15.6% to 30.6%
- vs Treasury
- +2.9%
- CryptoBTC-USD+0.2Fair
- Median fair value
- 102.083.8–121.4
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +4.0%-60.1% to 68.1%
- vs Treasury
- -0.6%
- +0.1Fair
- Median fair value
- 100.591.7–109.3
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- 1y modeled
- +6.5%-25.5% to 38.5%
- vs Treasury
- +1.9%
- -0.6Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 98.092.6–103.4
- Upside to median
- -2.0%
- 1y modeled
- +7.0%-14.8% to 28.8%
- vs Treasury
- +2.4%
- Real EstateVNQ-1.1Somewhat expensive
- Median fair value
- 96.090.0–101.7
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-17.1% to 29.1%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- US EquitiesSPY-1.5Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.083.8–99.8
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +6.0%-15.8% to 27.8%
- vs Treasury
- +1.4%
- MetalsGLD-1.5Expensive
- Median fair value
- 90.079.2–100.1
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-20.1% to 26.1%
- vs Treasury
- -1.6%
- -1.7Expensive
- Median fair value
- 92.085.3–98.8
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- 1y modeled
- +5.5%-17.6% to 28.6%
- vs Treasury
- +0.9%
- EnergyUSO-2.1Expensive
- Median fair value
- 87.079.8–95.2
- Upside to median
- -13.0%
- 1y modeled
- +3.0%-38.0% to 44.0%
- vs Treasury
- -1.6%
Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.
“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.
Where the market sits inside modeled fair value
Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.
Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 39.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 40.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 45.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 47.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 48.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Europe Equities
Today’s price sits at the 59.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 40% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 68.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 75.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Metals
Today’s price sits at the 74.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Developed Pacific Equities
Today’s price sits at the 78.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 21% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Energy
Today’s price sits at the 85.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.
Sources103
- 1
- 2
- 3
- 4
- 5
- 6
- 7November: The Setup ImprovesCitadel Securities
- 8QQQ ETF overview (Forward PE)StockAnalysis
- 9IWM ETF overview (Forward PE)StockAnalysis
- 10RSP ETF overview (Forward PE)StockAnalysis
- 11XLF ETF overview (Forward PE)StockAnalysis
- 12XLI ETF overview (Forward PE)StockAnalysis
- 13XLV ETF overview (Forward PE)StockAnalysis
- 14XLY ETF overview (Forward PE)StockAnalysis
- 15
- 16
- 17Equity Buybacks: Shifting Buyer Base Drives Record-High ActivityNeuberger Berman
- 18iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF | AGGBlackRock iShares
- 19ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 20ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 21iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF | LQDBlackRock iShares
- 22iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF | HYGBlackRock iShares
- 23iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF | TLTBlackRock iShares
- 24iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF | IEFBlackRock iShares
- 25iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF | SHYBlackRock iShares
- 26iShares TIPS Bond ETF | TIPBlackRock iShares
- 27Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond (THREEFYTP10)Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
- 28Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementBoard of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- 29CME FedWatchCME Group
- 30Credit Spreads Explained: OAS, IG vs HY & NNN Cap RatesInvestmentGrade.com
- 31
- 32
- 33Property Prices Tick LowerGreen Street
- 34State Of REITs: A Revival Is Brewing, If Rates BehaveETF Central (Hoya Capital)
- 35VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate ETFVanguard
- 36The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE)State Street Global Advisors
- 37iShares Global REIT ETF | REETBlackRock iShares
- 38iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate ETF | REZBlackRock iShares
- 39SRVR | Pacer ETFsPacer ETFs
- 40iShares Mortgage Real Estate ETF | REMBlackRock iShares
- 41Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Reports 3rd Quarter 2026 ResultsFinviz (Business Wire release)
- 42Digital Realty Q3 2026 results, Exhibit 99.1U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR)
- 43Brent Crude OilTrading Economics
- 44Brent Crude Oil Futures SettlementsCME Group
- 45Crude Oil Futures SettlementsCME Group
- 46Short-Term Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 47Short-Term Energy Outlook - Global Oil MarketsU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 48
- 49IEA: Oil supply rebound remains fragile; diesel tightness persistsOil & Gas Journal
- 50XLE: State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETFState Street Global Advisors
- 51XOP: State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETFState Street Global Advisors
- 52Weekly Natural Gas Storage ReportU.S. Energy Information Administration
- 53
- 54
- 55
- 56Gold - Price - Chart - Historical Data - NewsTrading Economics
- 57Gold Demand Trends: Q3 2026World Gold Council
- 58
- 59
- 60Silver market deficit expected to widen again this yearEngineering News
- 61Platinum Quarterly - Supply & DemandWorld Platinum Investment Council
- 62westmetall market data: LME copper cashWestmetall
- 63
- 64Barrick Reports Third Quarter 2026 ResultsU.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (EDGAR)
- 65
- 66
- 67
- 68Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m)Farside Investors
- 69iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF | IBITBlackRock iShares
- 70Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETFGrayscale
- 71
- 72MSCI EMU IndexMSCI
- 73
- 74
- 75
- 76
- 77MSCI Japan IndexMSCI
- 78
- 79
- 80
- 81
- 82
- 83
- 84
- 85MSCI Korea IndexMSCI
- 86MSCI India IndexMSCI
- 87
- 88
- 89MSCI China IndexMSCI
- 90
- 91
- 92Europe Stocks: current P/E Ratioworldperatio.com
- 93Emerging Markets Stocks: current P/E Ratioworldperatio.com
- 94Japan Stock Market: current P/E Ratioworldperatio.com
- 95Historical Data (Nikkei 225): P/ENikkei Inc.
- 96Emerging market equities: Making progressRBC Wealth Management
- 97Hong Kong (Hang Seng) P/E & CAPE 2026Siblis Research
- 98Hong Kong stocks roar back as value rotation boosts Chinese techThe Edge Malaysia (Bloomberg)
- 99PE Ratio (TTM) for the CSI 300 IndexGuruFocus
- 100
- 101Japanese Yen - Quote - Chart - Historical Data - NewsTrading Economics
- 102Japan Equity Strategy: Monthly Summary: Rotation from AI/Semiconductor SectorsFutu News (summary of J.P. Morgan research)
- 103European corporate outlook keeps improving as recovery goes beyond energy profitsAJOT (Reuters / LSEG I/B/E/S)
- Methodology
- cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
- Schema version
- 3.4.0
- Run ID
- valuation-lens-2026-11-10-261110001
This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.