Fixed Income
Today’s price sits at the 39.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 61% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.8
- Upside to median
- +0.8%
- Last close
- $71.09
- Confidence
- high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +11.8%
- P75
- +8.8%
- Median
- +5.4%
- P25
- +2.0%
- P10
- -1.0%
86% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Starting yield to maturity (5.20%) plus modest convergence toward median fair value, with a symmetric return range of about 5 percentage points (5.7-year duration times roughly 0.9pp of annual yield volatility).
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +9.1%
- P75
- +7.3%
- Median
- +5.3%
- P25
- +3.3%
- P10
- +1.5%
Starting yield anchors the multi-year return; reinvestment and price effects partly offset as yields change, narrowing the annualized range.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +0.8%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The 1-year bill rate is quoted on a bank-discount basis.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BND US Broad Bond Market | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 100.8 | $71.09 | +5.4% |
| HYG High-Yield Corporate Bonds | -1.4Expensive | 97.0 | $77.18 | — |
| IEF Intermediate US Treasuries | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 101.5 | $91.01 | — |
| LQD Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds | -0.2Fair | 99.5 | $103.88 | — |
| SHY Short-Term US Treasuries | +0.2Fair | 100.1 | $81.32 | — |
| TIP Inflation-Protected Treasuries | +1.4Cheap | 103.0 | $105.29 | — |
| TLT Long-Term US Treasuries | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $80.88 | — |