Crypto
Today’s price sits at the 47.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 53% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 20–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 102.0
- Upside to median
- +2.0%
- Last close
- $41.68
- Confidence
- low-moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +68.1%
- P75
- +37.7%
- Median
- +4.0%
- P25
- -29.7%
- P10
- -60.1%
53% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No cash flows; modest convergence toward median fair value with an adoption-demand drift, and a very wide symmetric range from about 50% annual volatility. Low confidence.
Three years, annualised
unavailable- P90
- —
- P75
- —
- Median
- —
- P25
- —
- P10
- —
Not modeled: no defensible multi-year economic anchor and insufficient completed outcome history.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- -0.6%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; Treasuries offer a similar central return with far lower uncertainty.