Japan Equities
Today’s price sits at the 45.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 54% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 101.0
- Upside to median
- +1.0%
- Last close
- $90.39
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +30.6%
- P75
- +19.6%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- -4.6%
- P10
- -15.6%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (1.9%) plus buybacks (about 1.5%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 5%) with near-zero valuation change, in USD terms; return range from about 18% annual volatility including currency, applied symmetrically.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +19.8%
- P75
- +13.8%
- Median
- +7.0%
- P25
- +0.3%
- P10
- -5.8%
Shareholder yield plus normalized earnings growth with partial yen normalization; annualized volatility reduced for horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +2.9%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected USD return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return.