US Equities
Today’s price sits at the 75.6th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 92.0
- Upside to median
- -8.0%
- Last close
- $749.92
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +27.8%
- P75
- +17.5%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -15.8%
64% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Shareholder yield (about 2%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 8% vs a roughly 15% 2027 consensus) less valuation drag of about 3-4% from partial convergence toward median fair value; return range from about 17% annual volatility applied symmetrically.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.7%
- P75
- +11.9%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -0.9%
- P10
- -6.7%
Shareholder yield plus 6-8% earnings growth less multiple compression of about 2.5% per year toward median fair value; annualized volatility reduced for horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The edge is thin relative to a 1-year return range of roughly -16% to +28%.
10 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY US Large-Cap Index | -1.5Expensive | 92.0 | $749.92 | +6.0% |
| DIA US Blue-Chip Index | —Unavailable | — | $521.73 | — |
| IWM US Small-Cap Index | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $280.58 | — |
| QQQ US Technology Index | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $674.84 | — |
| RSP US Equal-Weight Index | -0.8Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $220.88 | — |
| SMH US Semiconductor Sector | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $483.84 | — |
| XLF US Financial Sector | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 93.0 | $58.29 | — |
| XLI US Industrial Sector | -2.0Expensive | 87.0 | $168.73 | — |
| XLV US Healthcare Sector | -1.8Expensive | 90.0 | $188.88 | — |
| XLY US Consumer Discretionary Sector | -1.3Expensive | 92.0 | $121.05 | — |