Emerging Markets Equities
Today’s price sits at the 40.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.0
- Upside to median
- +3.0%
- Last close
- $56.49
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +33.6%
- P75
- +21.5%
- Median
- +8.0%
- P25
- -5.5%
- P10
- -17.6%
66% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.2%) plus haircut earnings growth (about 8%, well below the 19% 2027 consensus) plus partial convergence toward median fair value, in USD; return range from about 20% annual volatility applied symmetrically around the median.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +21.6%
- P75
- +14.9%
- Median
- +7.5%
- P25
- +0.1%
- P10
- -6.6%
Income plus normalized earnings growth, with the semiconductor earnings cycle assumed to mean-revert over three years; annualized volatility reduced for horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +3.4%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected USD return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return. The benchmark is a proxy for the asset class.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VWO Emerging Markets Broad Index | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 103.0 | $56.49 | +8.0% |
| EMXC Emerging Markets Ex-China | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $87.97 | — |
| EWT Taiwan Index | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $94.68 | — |
| EWY South Korea Index | +0.9Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $139.18 | — |
| EWZ Brazil Index | +1.2Somewhat cheap | 108.0 | $32.15 | — |
| EZA South Africa Index | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $67.79 | — |
| INDA India Index | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $51.72 | — |