Real Estate
Today’s price sits at the 68.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 32% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 96.0
- Upside to median
- -4.0%
- Last close
- $97.08
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +29.1%
- P75
- +18.1%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -6.1%
- P10
- -17.1%
63% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (about 3.7%) plus FFO growth (about 4%) less partial convergence toward median fair value; return range from about 18% annual volatility applied symmetrically.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +18.3%
- P75
- +12.3%
- Median
- +5.5%
- P25
- -1.3%
- P10
- -7.3%
Income plus same-store NOI growth with gradual cap-rate adjustment toward a wider Treasury spread; annualized volatility reduced for horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +1.4%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return, and small relative to the return range.
6 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VNQ US Real Estate | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 96.0 | $97.08 | +6.0% |
| REET Global Real Estate | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 98.0 | $27.27 | — |
| REM Mortgage Real Estate | +0.8Somewhat cheap | 105.0 | $17.07 | — |
| REZ Residential and Specialized REITs | -1.5Expensive | 93.0 | $95.55 | — |
| SRVR Data Center and Digital REITs | -0.5Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $28.58 | — |
| XLRE US Real Estate Sector | -1.1Somewhat expensive | 95.5 | $44.58 | — |