Metals
Today’s price sits at the 74.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
Axis widened to 40–160 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 50–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.
- Median fair value
- 90.0
- Upside to median
- -10.0%
- Last close
- $379.53
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +26.1%
- P75
- +15.1%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -9.1%
- P10
- -20.1%
57% of modeled scenarios end positive.
No income; sovereign-demand support offset by partial convergence toward median fair value with real yields near 2.8%, measured from the last validated GLD close; return range from about 18% annual volatility applied symmetrically.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +15.3%
- P75
- +9.3%
- Median
- +2.5%
- P25
- -4.3%
- P10
- -10.3%
Real gold price assumed roughly flat to modestly lower with inflation pass-through; annualized volatility reduced for horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- -1.6%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the 1-year Treasury offers a higher central return with far lower uncertainty.
7 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD Gold | -1.5Expensive | 90.0 | $379.53 | +3.0% |
| CPER Copper | -2.1Expensive | 85.0 | $37.74 | — |
| DBB Base Metals | —Unavailable | — | $24.38 | — |
| GDX Gold Miners | -0.2Fair | 98.0 | $86.49 | — |
| PICK Global Metals and Mining | —Unavailable | — | $55.33 | — |
| PPLT Platinum | -1.2Somewhat expensive | 92.0 | $13.94 | — |
| SLV Silver | -0.6Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $46.48 | — |