Energy
Today’s price sits at the 85.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 15% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.0
- Upside to median
- -13.0%
- Last close
- $141.45
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +44.0%
- P75
- +24.6%
- Median
- +3.0%
- P25
- -18.6%
- P10
- -38.0%
54% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Futures-holding return: expected spot decline toward about $75 WTI largely offset by backwardation roll yield, plus collateral income near the T-bill rate; return range from about 32% annual volatility applied symmetrically.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +23.8%
- P75
- +13.5%
- Median
- +2.0%
- P25
- -9.5%
- P10
- -19.8%
Spot crude converging toward long-run marginal cost with fading roll yield as the curve flattens, plus collateral income; annualized volatility reduced for horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- -1.6%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; the 1-year Treasury offers a higher central return with far lower uncertainty.