China & Hong Kong Equities
Today’s price sits at the 48.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 52% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 100.5
- Upside to median
- +0.5%
- Last close
- $51.00
- Confidence
- moderate-high
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.5%
- P75
- +23.4%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- -10.4%
- P10
- -25.5%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Dividend yield (2.6%) plus buybacks (about 1%) plus earnings growth haircut for ongoing downgrades (about 3%), with no valuation change; return range from about 25% annual volatility applied symmetrically.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +22.7%
- P75
- +14.8%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -2.8%
- P10
- -10.7%
Shareholder yield plus mid-single-digit earnings growth; annualized volatility reduced for horizon.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.56%
- Modeled excess
- +1.9%
- Basis
- proxy
Modeled spread of the 1-year median expected USD return over the 1-year Treasury par yield; not a guaranteed excess return, and small relative to the return range.
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.1Fair | 100.5 | $51.00 | +6.5% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | +0.4Somewhat cheap | 102.0 | $24.66 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | -0.4Somewhat expensive | 97.0 | $4.00 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | -0.9Somewhat expensive | 95.0 | $30.56 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $16.42 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $39.49 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | 0.0Fair | 100.0 | $23.27 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | +0.2Fair | 101.0 | $34.41 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | -0.3Fair | 98.0 | $24.06 | — |