Valuation Lens — October 26, 2026

With the 10-year Treasury at 5.00% and Brent near $128, high-quality bonds and China screen modestly cheap, while Australia, REITs, gold, US equities and crude oil price above their modeled fair-value medians.

Every asset class is indexed so today’s market price equals 100. A median fair value of 112 means the model puts fair value 12% above the current price; 93 means 7% below it. Modeled returns are distributions, not forecasts.

Explains: price against valueDescribes what today’s price assumes against a modeled range of value — for insight and context.

October 26, 2026Last market session Oct 26, 2026Data cutoff Oct 26, 2026, 8:30 PM EDT

The hurdle to beat

4.47%1y Treasury

The 1-year Treasury par yield of 4.47% sets the annual hurdle, while the 5.00% 10-year yield and 2.66% 10-year real yield sit near the top of their 10-year ranges.

10y Treasury: 5.0%
10y real: 2.7%

Scorecard

Cheap to expensive

Ranked by valuation score. Positive means the model sees value below the market price — the opposite convention to a trend score, so the labels are always shown alongside.

Fixed IncomeBND
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
100.898.7–103.1
Upside to median
+0.8%
1y modeled
+5.4%-1.5% to 11.5%
vs Treasury
+0.9%
China & Hong Kong EquitiesMCHI
+0.6
Somewhat cheap
Median fair value
103.394.0–112.9
Upside to median
+3.3%
1y modeled
+6.0%-24.0% to 34.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
Emerging Markets EquitiesVWO
+0.1
Fair
Median fair value
100.490.5–110.1
Upside to median
+0.4%
1y modeled
+7.0%-17.0% to 28.0%
vs Treasury
+2.5%
CryptoBTC-USD
-0.2
Fair
Median fair value
97.577.7–118.2
Upside to median
-2.5%
1y modeled
+3.0%-50.0% to 75.0%
vs Treasury
-1.5%
Japan EquitiesEWJ
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
95.388.5–102.3
Upside to median
-4.7%
1y modeled
+6.5%-15.0% to 25.0%
vs Treasury
+2.0%
Europe EquitiesVGK
-1.1
Somewhat expensive
Median fair value
94.987.7–101.9
Upside to median
-5.1%
1y modeled
+6.0%-15.0% to 24.0%
vs Treasury
+1.5%
US EquitiesSPY
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
93.185.7–99.9
Upside to median
-6.9%
1y modeled
+5.5%-15.5% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%
EnergyUSO
-1.5
Expensive
Median fair value
87.876.8–100.0
Upside to median
-12.2%
1y modeled
-6.0%-45.0% to 38.0%
vs Treasury
-10.5%
Real EstateVNQ
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
92.485.2–99.4
Upside to median
-7.6%
1y modeled
+5.0%-17.0% to 23.0%
vs Treasury
+0.5%
MetalsGLD
-1.6
Expensive
Median fair value
89.178.3–99.3
Upside to median
-10.9%
1y modeled
+2.0%-20.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
-2.5%
Developed Pacific EquitiesEWA
-2.0
Expensive
Median fair value
90.383.7–97.2
Upside to median
-9.7%
1y modeled
+5.5%-14.0% to 22.0%
vs Treasury
+1.0%

Valuation Lens scores by asset class for 2026-10-26, ranked cheapest to most expensive.
Asset class	Valuation	Median fair value	Upside to median	1y modeled	vs Treasury
Fixed Income BND	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	100.8 98.7–103.1	+0.8%	+5.4% -1.5% to 11.5%	+0.9%
China & Hong Kong Equities MCHI	+0.6 Somewhat cheap	103.3 94.0–112.9	+3.3%	+6.0% -24.0% to 34.0%	+1.5%
Emerging Markets Equities VWO	+0.1 Fair	100.4 90.5–110.1	+0.4%	+7.0% -17.0% to 28.0%	+2.5%
Crypto BTC-USD	-0.2 Fair	97.5 77.7–118.2	-2.5%	+3.0% -50.0% to 75.0%	-1.5%
Japan Equities EWJ	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	95.3 88.5–102.3	-4.7%	+6.5% -15.0% to 25.0%	+2.0%
Europe Equities VGK	-1.1 Somewhat expensive	94.9 87.7–101.9	-5.1%	+6.0% -15.0% to 24.0%	+1.5%
US Equities SPY	-1.5 Expensive	93.1 85.7–99.9	-6.9%	+5.5% -15.5% to 22.0%	+1.0%
Energy USO	-1.5 Expensive	87.8 76.8–100.0	-12.2%	-6.0% -45.0% to 38.0%	-10.5%
Real Estate VNQ	-1.6 Expensive	92.4 85.2–99.4	-7.6%	+5.0% -17.0% to 23.0%	+0.5%
Metals GLD	-1.6 Expensive	89.1 78.3–99.3	-10.9%	+2.0% -20.0% to 22.0%	-2.5%
Developed Pacific Equities EWA	-2.0 Expensive	90.3 83.7–97.2	-9.7%	+5.5% -14.0% to 22.0%	+1.0%

Scores run −3 to +3: −3 is very expensive against modeled fair value, +3 very cheap. Positive means undervalued.

“1y modeled” shows the median of a scenario distribution with its 10th-to-90th percentile range beneath. These are model outputs under stated assumptions, not predictions, and the range is as important as the midpoint.

Distributions

Where the market sits inside modeled fair value

Each curve is the model's full range of fair-value outcomes. The solid marker is today's price; the dashed line is the median of the distribution.

Fixed Income

BND · US Broad Bond Market

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 60% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 57%Historical base rate: 44%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

China & Hong Kong Equities

MCHI · China Broad Market

+0.6Somewhat cheap

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 40.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 50%

Emerging Markets Equities

VWO · Emerging Markets Broad Index

+0.1Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 49.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 51% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 67%

Crypto

BTC-USD · Bitcoin

-0.2Fair

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 53.3th percentile of modeled fair value — 47% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Axis widened to 10–200 to show the full modeled range; the published renderer axis of 40–160 would clip this distribution’s tails.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 49%

Japan Equities

EWJ · Japan Broad Market

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 67.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 33% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 55%Historical base rate: 69%

Europe Equities

VGK · Europe Broad Market

-1.1Somewhat expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 68.9th percentile of modeled fair value — 31% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 54%Historical base rate: 80%

US Equities

SPY · US Large-Cap Index

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.2th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 85%

Energy

USO · US Crude Oil

-1.5Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 75.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 38%Historical base rate: 61%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Real Estate

VNQ · US Real Estate

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 77.0th percentile of modeled fair value — 23% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 51%Historical base rate: 53%

Metals

GLD · Gold

-1.6Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 76.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 24% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 44%Historical base rate: 72%

Not a calibrated probability — no regime-matched history was available, so this is the model’s own scenario weighting shown next to the unconditional historical rate.

Developed Pacific Equities

EWA · Australia Broad Market

-2.0Expensive

P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100

Today’s price sits at the 82.5th percentile of modeled fair value — 18% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.

Scenario-implied odds of beating the 1y Treasury: 53%Historical base rate: 68%

Sources33

1
S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 23, 2026
FactSet
2
Earnings Insight, October 23, 2026
FactSet
3
Weekly Market Recap, October 26, 2026
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
4
J.P. Morgan releases 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions
J.P. Morgan Asset Management
5
Vanguard Capital Markets Model return forecasts
Vanguard
6
Shiller PE Ratio
Multpl
7
MSCI Europe Index
MSCI
8
MSCI Japan Index
MSCI
9
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
MSCI
10
MSCI China Index
MSCI
11
MSCI Australia Index
MSCI
12
Emerging market equities: Making progress
RBC Wealth Management
13
European Stocks: Reasons to Reconsider
Charles Schwab
14
iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI)
BlackRock iShares
15
iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ)
BlackRock iShares
16
iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)
BlackRock iShares
17
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Vanguard
18
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLC0A0CM)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
19
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
20
Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ)
Vanguard
21
REIT Industry Financial Snapshot
Nareit
22
Nareit REIT Industry Tracker, Q2 2026
Nareit
23
Commercial Property Price Index
Green Street
24
LBMA Precious Metal Prices
LBMA
25
Gold Demand Trends Q2 2026
World Gold Council
26
Gold Holds Its Ground as Real Yields Surge
Sprott
27
Spot Prices for Crude Oil and Petroleum Products (daily)
U.S. Energy Information Administration
28
Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026: Global Oil Markets
U.S. Energy Information Administration
29
Short-Term Energy Outlook Table 3d: World Crude Oil Production and OPEC Surplus Capacity
U.S. Energy Information Administration
30
Coin Metrics Community API: BTC MVRV and price
Coin Metrics
31
Bitcoin price
CoinGecko
32
S&P 500 (SP500)
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)
33
Russell 2000 PE ratio and yields
Siblis Research

Methodology: cxpw_valuation_lens_v3.4
Schema version: 3.4.0
Run ID: valuation-lens-2026-10-26-261026001

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and is not financial advice. All investing involves risk, including the risk of loss.