Energy
Today’s price sits at the 75.1th percentile of modeled fair value — 25% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 87.8
- Upside to median
- -12.2%
- Last close
- $166.23
- Confidence
- moderate
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +38.0%
- P75
- +15.0%
- Median
- -6.0%
- P25
- -28.0%
- P10
- -45.0%
43% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Front-month crude futures exposure: scenario-weighted change in the clearing price over 12 months, partly offset by collateral income and roll yield in a backwardated curve; the futures curve itself was not verified.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +10.0%
- P75
- +3.0%
- Median
- -5.0%
- P25
- -12.0%
- P10
- -20.0%
Gradual restoration of spare capacity toward the official 2027 forecast path, with collateral income; low reliability.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- -10.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed outcome. The Treasury offers a materially higher modeled median with far lower uncertainty.