China & Hong Kong Equities
Data cutoff
Modeled fair value
MCHI · China Broad Market
P10–P90P25–P75Median fair valueToday's market price = 100
Today’s price sits at the 40.8th percentile of modeled fair value — 59% of modeled scenarios put fair value above the market.
- Median fair value
- 103.3
- Upside to median
- +3.3%
- Last close
- $49.12
- Confidence
- moderate
index, market = 100
2026-10-26
64/100
Modeled returns
Return distributions, not point forecasts
Percentiles describe the spread of scenario outcomes under the stated method. The width of the range carries as much information as the midpoint.
One year
modeled- P90
- +34.0%
- P75
- +20.0%
- Median
- +6.0%
- P25
- -9.0%
- P10
- -24.0%
60% of modeled scenarios end positive.
Haircut forward EPS growth of about 10%, a 2.4% dividend yield and modest partial convergence toward the fair-value median, with dispersion scaled to China's historical volatility.
Three years, annualised
modeled- P90
- +17.0%
- P75
- +12.0%
- Median
- +6.5%
- P25
- +0.5%
- P10
- -6.0%
Normalized earnings growth plus dividends with partial multiple convergence over three years.
Against the Treasury hurdle
- 1y Treasury
- 4.47%
- Modeled excess
- +1.5%
- Basis
- direct
Modeled 1-year median return minus the 1-year Treasury par yield; a modeled spread, not a guaranteed excess return, earned with very wide dispersion.
Instruments
9 in this asset class
| Symbol | Valuation | Fair value | Last close | 1y modeled |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHI China Broad Market | +0.6Somewhat cheap | 103.3 | $49.12 | +6.0% |
| 2800.HK Hang Seng Index Tracker | —Unavailable | — | $23.76 | — |
| 3033.HK Hang Seng Technology Index | —Unavailable | — | $3.80 | — |
| ASHR China A-Shares | —Unavailable | — | $30.94 | — |
| CHIQ China Consumer Sector | —Unavailable | — | $15.67 | — |
| CQQQ China Technology Sector | —Unavailable | — | $40.03 | — |
| EWH Hong Kong Broad Market | —Unavailable | — | $21.95 | — |
| FXI China Large-Cap | —Unavailable | — | $32.51 | — |
| KWEB China Internet Sector | —Unavailable | — | $23.20 | — |